Grammer/Graham model pitcher rankings — wins, ERA, and xFIP with 30-day projections for top 5 and bottom 5

Wins: full tracker, ≥4 GS, starter credited on team win ERA / xFIP: model blended values, today's slate (29 pitchers) Projection method: ERA regressed 30% → xFIP; xFIP regressed 15% → lgAvg (4.20); wins via current W% × 5 starts
Current — May 12, 2026 Projected — Jun 12, 2026

Pitcher wins

Season tracker, all starters with ≥4 GS. Projection: W% × 5 additional starts (+20% floor applied to 0-win pitchers).

top 5

Top 5 by wins: Davis Martin 7, Nick Martinez 7, Will Warren 7, Steven Matz 6, Grant Holmes 6.

bottom 5

Bottom 5 by wins (≥4 GS): Tanner Bibee 0/7, Kumar Rocker 0/6, McCullers Jr. 0/5, David Peterson 0/4, Adrian Houser 1/7.

ERA

Lower is better. Projection: ERA regressed 30% toward pitcher's current xFIP over next 5 starts.

top 5 (best ERA)

Top 5 ERA: Skenes 3.02, Yamamoto 3.22, Woo 3.36, Wheeler 3.40, McClanahan 3.60.

bottom 5 (worst ERA)

Bottom 5 ERA: Mikolas 6.32, Peralta 5.94, Lorenzen 5.40, Fedde 5.33, Ureña 5.14.
Erick Fedde: ERA 5.33 but xFIP 3.18 — largest ERA/xFIP gap today (+2.15). Model projects a 0.64-run ERA correction by Jun 12. Largest regression signal on the slate.

xFIP

Lower is better. Projection: xFIP regressed 15% toward league average (4.20). xFIP is park/defense-neutral; divergence from ERA signals regression candidates.

top 5 (best xFIP)

Top 5 xFIP: Woo 2.27, Skenes 2.56, Wheeler 3.05, Gore 3.17, McClanahan 3.27.

bottom 5 (worst xFIP)

Bottom 5 xFIP: Ureña 5.46, Mikolas 5.43, Lorenzen 5.05, Grant Holmes 4.84, Peralta 4.78.
Grant Holmes appears in both wins top 5 (6W) and xFIP bottom 5 (4.84). Win total likely inflated by run support — underlying profile is below average.